Trends and Forecasts Resource Library
U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
Appalachian LCC Conservation Design Framework
Researchers identified five conservation design elements covering many critical ecological processes and patterns across the Appalachian LCC geography. These elements include large interconnected regions as well as broad landscapes that connect them. Small areas that are likely to contain larger ecological significance than their size would suggest were also mapped. Examples of aquatic and terrestrial conservation targets are provided that represent design elements. All of the elements are assessed in regards to the three major landscape level threats in the geography (climate change, energy development, and urbanization from housing density). Since cultural resources are an additional critical piece of conservation design in the Appalachians, a conceptual framework was developed for mapping these resources across the entire geography and will be integrated in a future iteration of the conservation design.
Ecosystem Benefits and Risks Website
The Appalachian LCC has collaborated with the US Forest Service to provide information and tools that fully integrate society’s value of ecosystems with future threats to better inform natural resource planning and management. Through links on this page, users can access information, maps, data, and additional resources brought together through this collaboration.
U.S. FOREST SERVICE
National Stream and Aquatic Ecology Center
The focus of the National Stream and Aquatic Ecology Center is on developing tools and science applications for the more effective management and conservation of watersheds, streams, riparian ecosystems, fisheries and aquatic ecosystems on National Forests and Grasslands. The Center's focus is on environmental flows and water resource management, watershed, stream, riparian, and aquatic habitat restoration, condition, trend, and effectiveness monitoring of watershed, channel, aquatic habitat, and riparian vegetation, technology development, transfer and application, and technical Support and Training.
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Actual Evapotranspiration Modeling
This project applies evapotranspiration remote sensing at two scales, 1) across the full landscape at 1000 m MODIS resolution (as a component of the water budget to support water availability studies, and 2) on agricultural lands at 100 m Landsat resolution (for estimating crop water use). Actual ET (ETa) is produced using the operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model (Senay and others, 2013) for the period 2000 to present.
Actual Evapotranspiration attributed to 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code Watersheds data is available here.
Aggregate Water Use Data System Web Services
The U.S. Geological Survey maintains national data bases of water-use information. The data are collected and compiled every five years for every state. This version of the Aggregate Water Use Dataset was compiled from the 1985 through 2005 compilations.
Annual Water Data Reports
These reports were published annually for many decades for use by engineers, scientists, managers, educators, and the general public. These static archival products supplemented direct access to current and historical water data provided by the National Water Information System web interface (NWISWeb), the authoritative source for USGS water data.
The USGS BioData Retrieval system provides access to aquatic biological community and physical habitat data collected by USGS scientists from stream ecosystems across the nation. USGS scientists collect fish, aquatic macroinvertebrate, and algae-community samples and conduct stream physical habitat surveys. The system contains sample data that were collected and processed since 1991 using the protocols of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA). As of 2010, the system has added data collected by USGS scientists using the procedures and protocols of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Rivers and Streams Assessment program (NRSA).
Historic Streamflow Conditions
Maps and animations of monthly and annual streamflow conditions by water year from 1921-2002.
Hydro-Climatic Data Network
The USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network is a subset of all USGS streamgages for which the streamflow primarily reflects prevailing meteorological conditions for specified years. These stations were screened to exclude sites where human activities, such as artificial diversions, storage, and other activities in the drainage basin or the stream channel, affect the natural flow of the watercourse. In addition, sites were included in the network because their record length was sufficiently long for analysis of patterns in streamflow over time. The purpose of the network is to provide a streamflow dataset suitable for analyzing hydrologic variations and trends in a climatic context.
Instantaneous Data Archive
Since 1889 the United States Geological Survey has collected continuous stage, discharge, and other instantaneous time-series data on the nations rivers and streams. These time-series data have been and are typically recorded at intervals ranging from 5 to 60 minutes. This web site has been established to make available as much historical instantaneous data from USGS data collection stations as possible. Although this site currently serves instantaneous discharge (streamflow) data only, work is planned to extend it to other time-series parameters in the future.
National Water Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA)
NAWQA is a USGS database that can help you answer three questions: 1) What is the condition of our Nation's streams, rivers, and ground water? 2) How are these conditions changing over time? 3) How do natural features and human activities affect these conditions, and where are those effects most pronounced?
Stream statistics are computed from daily streamflow values, flood peak flows, and measured low flows, and include, for example, 100-year flood; 7-day, 10-year low flow; and mean annual flow. Statistics such as these are commonly used to help estimate reliability of water supplies and risks of floods or droughts, and may be available in published reports or from the StreamStats site. StreamStats is available in Tennessee and Kentucky.
Water-Use Information Program
The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Use Information program is responsible for compiling and disseminating the nation's water-use data. The USGS works in cooperation with local, State, and Federal environmental agencies to collect water-use information. USGS compiles these data to produce water-use information aggregated at the county, state, and national levels.
Watershed Boundaries From GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow
This dataset, termed "GAGES II", an acronym for Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, version II, provides geospatial data and classifications for 9,322 stream gages maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This dataset has two purposes: (1) to provide users with a comprehensive set of geospatial characteristics for a large number of gaged watersheds, particularly for gages with long flow record, and (2) to provide a determination of which of those watersheds represent hydrologic conditions which are least disturbed by human influences ("reference gages"), compared to other watersheds within ecoregions.
This USGS tool provides basic flow statistics computed from daily streamflow values, including the daily average, minimum, and maximum streamflow; and flow duration curve for the period of observed data, allowing users to determine longterm flow statistics.
State Resources - KENTUCKY
KY DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES
State Wildlife Action Plan - KY
In order to receive funds through the Wildlife Conservation and Restoration Program and the State Wildlife Grants Program, Congress charged each state and territory with developing a wildlife action plan. These proactive plans, known technically as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies,” assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify the problems they face, and outline the actions that are needed to conserve them over the long term. Kentucky's most recent plan was completed in 2013.
KY DIVISION OF MINE RECLAMATION AND ENFORCEMENT
Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessment
The Division of Mine Permits is responsible for assessing the impact of an applicant’s proposed operation on the environment. A Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessment (CHIA) is conducted for each application. The data is organized by the watershed’s Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC), which is used to identify the unique watershed. The data may include surface water quality, benthic information, groundwater quality, water quality violations, pollutant discharge elimination information, mine history and information regarding pending mines. The files are organized by their HUC 12 watershed and are available for download.
Watershed Trend Station Data
The Kentucky Department for Natural Resources has posted water quality data taken from in-stream sampling sites throughout the Kentucky coalfields. The data represents analyses of water samples taken quarterly from July 2010 through June 2012. Samples were taken from 53 sites in the eastern coalfield and 11 sites in the western coalfield during the time period. A table on this webpage lists information for each sample site and a link to its data sheet containing the measurements of concentration for tested analytes.
KY GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Permitted Oil and Gas Wells Timeline Query Tool
A tool for seeing permitted O&G wells across the state and a timeline for seeing drilled well by permitted date.
State Resources - TENNESSEE
TN DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND CONSERVATION
303(d) Lists of Impaired Waters in Tennessee
The 303(d) list is a compilation of the lakes, rivers, and streams in Tennessee that fail to meet one or more water quality standards. In addition, the list provides pollutant information and TMDL prioritization. 303(d) lists available on this site data back to 1992.
305(b) Report on Surface Water Quality in Tennessee
The 305(b) Report summarizes the general water quality of surface waters in Tennessee. The report contains information about water quality, the assessment process, use support, causes and sources of pollution, and waterbodies posted due to human health risks. 305(b) reports available on this site date back to 2002.
NASHVILLE METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION
2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan
The plan serves as the gateway to federal transportation funds that are distributed through the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration and represents the region's top priorities for state funding as the Tennessee Governor and TDOT prepare the annual three-year work program for the Tennessee General Assembly. Particularly relevant sections include: Chapter 3. Trends and Forecasts, which provides population and land development forecasts, amongst other trends and forecasts; and Chapter 9. Implementation and Monitoring, which describes how proposed transportation projects could potentially impact vulnerable populations and the natural environment along with a discussion of mitigation strategies.
Building Resilience: A Climate Adaption Plan
In 2015, the Model Forest Policy Program, Cumberland River Compact, and the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization came together to create a climate adaptation plan for Davidson, Wilson, Williamson, Sumner, Rutherford, Robertson, and Maury Counties in Middle Tennessee. The Nashville Area MPO took a local leadership role to engage with the Climate Solutions University: Forest and Water Strategies program and lead the region toward climate resilience with an adaptation plan that addresses the local climate risks and fits local conditions and culture.
Cumberland Region GreenPrint
The GIS GreenPrint Tools for Quality Growth web-based publication fulfills the need for a regional GIS based decision making tool that can be used by local and state government planners to insure access to and knowledge of critical lands for conservation. The information in this report is intended to provide a better basis for decision making as projected impacts and costs of land use and transportation decisions are being made and land resource conservation priorities are included in local and regional plans.
Land Use & Development
The MPO has recently updated the business-as-usual scenario (a.k.a. trend model) to predict where people will live and work between now and 2035 for 10 counties in Middle Tennessee, including the 7 counties included in the MPO's planning area. The model's predictions take into account current land use policies, land development regulations, and each parcel's relative attractiveness to future growth.
NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION RESOURCES
CLIMATE SOLUTIONS UNIVERSITY
Each community that participates in Climate Solutions University creates a climate adaptation plan. The adaptation plans are completed at the local level, using our refined, expert process (which is delivered online).
Building Resilience: A Climate Adaptation Plan (Draft)
This plan was developed by the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) in collaboration with Climate Solutions University (CSU), the Cumberland River Compact, and the Model Forest Policy Program. The purpose of the document is to identify the primary climate and non-climate stressors facing the Middle Tennessee region and to propose solutions to address these risks.
Forest and Water Climate Adaptation: A Plan for Sumner County Tennessee
This document more comprehensively examines the impact of climate change upon Sumner County’s resources and economy and includes specific measures that will mitigate impacts upon forest and water resources.
Have you assessed your community’s climate risks and identified resilience goals? If so, Model Forest Policy Program’sClimate Solutions Implementation Project is ready to help you reach your climate adaptation goals. CSU has a variety of ways to support your implementation activities. Get ready to make real progress in building the resilience and capacity of your organization, staff, and community!
CUMBERLAND RIVER COMPACT
Proactive actions provide good risk management, avoid costs, and help ensure that during our region’s rapid we maintain the natural components of resiliency- tree canopy, headwater streams with natural floodplains and buffer zones, local food production, and open space for public health, safety, recreation, and quality of life. The Compact is moving the basin toward resilience in collaboration with Climate Solutions University, The Nashville Area MPO, and others using climate resilience education, planning, policies and practices.
HARPETH RIVER WATERSHED ASSOCIATION
America's Most Endangered Rivers
America's Most Endangered Rivers report lists rivers at a crossroads, where upcoming key decisions will influence the fates of rivers facing continuing ecological threats. The list is intended to help spur citizen involvement and public discourse in such decision making in order to reach results that serve communities and restore waterways. The Harpeth River was listed in 2015 and this page includes more information about the listing including a press release and the listing itself.
Water Quality and Sustainability
HRWA's Water Quality and Sustainability efforts focus on ensuring that policies and regulations are in place that support water quality. Efforts involve shaping growth and the built human landscape so that the ecological health of the river and its watershed is maintained and improved. HRWA's expertise include watershed management and planning, stormwater management and regulations, clean water law and regulations, federal and state permitting and local planning and zoning, and land use planning. This page includes links to HRWA's Protect Our River Campaign, Sewer work, Drinking Water efforts, Toilet to Tap, Egyptian Lacquer's point source pollution, Lowhead Dam Removal, and other science related efforts. This page also links visitors to a number of watershed plans including: the Five Mile Creek Watershed; the headwaters; the West Harpeth; Jones Creek and the South Harpeth.
KENTUCKY WATERWAYS ALLIANCE
Rockcastle River Conservation Program
The Rockcastle River Conservation Program was formed to conserve land and species and enhance the overall quality of life around this special river. The Rockcastle has the cleanest water in the state of Kentucky. At the same time, the area is among the fastest growing areas in the state and millions of dollars are needed to conserve sensitive habitats before they are lost forever to development or mining. While the lower part of the Rockcastle River is protected because it is home to endangered species, the upper areas are still exposed and unprotected and face immediate threats, mainly from tourism and the prospect of a new I-66 interstate. Horse Lick Creek and Sinking Creek are special focus areas of the project.
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY OF TENNESSEE
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Tennessee
This report, part of a series of state studies, highlights the economic impacts of climate change in Tennessee and provides examples of additional ripple effects such as reduced spending in other sectors and resulting losses of jobs, wages, and even tax revenues.
SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENTAL LAW CENTER
Drought in the South: Planning for a Water-Wise Future (2009)
A look at drought related issues facing the South and how to plan and prepare for them.
Fracking in the Southeast
While SELC supports cleaner alternative energy sources such as natural gas that will help move our region away from coal, we strongly object to the destructive ways natural gas is now being extracted—and to the lack of environmental oversight. Tennessee’s environmental agency has established oil and gas drilling regulations, but they do not go nearly far enough to protect water and wildlife. SELC’s continues to advocate for full disclosure of the chemicals and fracking fluids drilling companies will use, which is not required under federal law. This page also links visitors to a 'Hydrofracking Could Impact Water Supply for up to 3.2 Million People' map/graphic and a 'Shale Gas Potential' map.
Roadless Areas of the Southern Appalachians (2004)
A look at what we've lost and we stand to lose in forested areas of Appalachia.
Smart Growth in the Southeast
The Southeast has been sprawling faster than any other part of the country; our region’s haphazard and inefficient development patterns and asphalt-centered transportation programs have increased fuel consumption and tailpipe pollution while leading to the rapid loss of farmland, natural areas, and open spaces. SELC’s experts are advocating smart growth policies at the state and local levels that will help make communities more desirable, sustainable, and economically competitive while reducing the cost to taxpayers to serve growth.